Over the past three to four years since the onset of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, the Indian textile industry has moved forward at a gradual yet steady pace. Much of this growth has been driven by downstream fabric manufacturing, where several players have invested in modern weaving and knitting technology to expand capacity and improve efficiency.
While exports to the United States faced disruption following the introduction of Trump-era tariffs, the Indian industry adapted quickly. Structural reforms in the GST framework and the signing of Free Trade Agreements with regions such as the UAE, New Zealand, and parts of Europe helped stabilize export momentum. The recent trade understanding with the United States at the start of this year has further strengthened confidence within the export ecosystem.
Another important factor supporting the MMF yarn industry has been the availability of discounted crude oil supplies from Russia. This helped maintain competitive input costs and allowed the polyester value chain to sustain stable pricing for a considerable period. Even geopolitical developments in energy-producing regions such as Venezuela had only a limited and temporary impact on markets.
However, the late-February escalation involving Iran has now introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty into global energy markets. With the United States and Israel declaring military action against Iran and the subsequent retaliatory responses across the Gulf region, energy supply routes have come under severe stress.
The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical oil transit corridors—has quickly translated into volatility in global crude markets. Within a matter of days, crude prices have fluctuated sharply, rising above USD 116 per barrel before correcting and then climbing again as uncertainty persists.
For the Indian MMF textile ecosystem, such movements in crude oil inevitably cascade through the petrochemical chain—from PX to PTA and MEG—and ultimately into polyester yarn pricing.
In recent days, PTA and MEG prices have moved sharply upward, driven by developments in global energy markets. Polyester yarn prices have already increased by approximately ₹18–20 per kg within a short span of time, creating significant pricing pressure across the value chain.
The speed and frequency of these yarn price adjustments have placed the weaving sector under considerable strain. At the same time, operational challenges are also emerging. Seasonal labour shortages during the summer months, combined with tightening availability of LPG and CNG, are beginning to affect daily production cycles.
From yarn heat-setting to downstream fabric processing, several manufacturers are currently operating with gas supplies sufficient for only a limited number of days. Concerns regarding continuity of production are therefore becoming increasingly visible across the
supply chain.
supply chain.
As a result, cost escalations are gradually being passed forward at every stage—from yarn producers to weavers, processors, and eventually fabric buyers. However, demand conditions remain uncertain. Export shipments are facing delays at ports, and several international buyers are currently adopting a cautious approach by holding or postponing orders. In such an environment, the industry is likely to move into a short period of consolidation where participants focus more on managing inventory and liquidity rather than expanding production.
At Aaditya Texchem, our continuous interactions with spinners, weavers, and traders across Surat provide a real-time perspective of market developments at the ground level. One theme is becoming increasingly clear: the textile market today is deeply interconnected with global macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. Movements in crude oil, energy logistics, and international trade policy are now influencing raw material costs and pricing decisions across the textile value chain much faster than before.
For industry participants, the coming weeks will require a balanced and disciplined approach—remaining responsive to raw material price movements while closely monitoring demand signals from the fabric market. If the current disruptions continue or intensify, market activity may temporarily shift towards essential stock movement between supply chain segments rather than fresh demand creation.
In periods of volatility such as this, timely market insight and informed decision-making become the most valuable resources for businesses across the textile ecosystem.